NORSTRAT - Nordic power road map 2050: Strategic choices towards carbon neutrality

The project is based on scenarios to 2050 and makes quantitative analysis of the power system with particular emphasis on the needs for the transmission network. The effects on the power system from the electrification of transport and heating sector are included in the analyses. Furthermore, recommendations regarding political measures necessary for the development of the transmission network and for the electrification of the transport sector are regarded.

All scenarios are based on a significant expansion of renewable energy in the Nordic region. The new renewable energy is wind power in the Nordic countries, bioenergy in Sweden and Finland, small-scale hydropower in Norway as well as some solar power south in the region. In all scenarios, there will be a greater integration between the Nordic countries. In two of the scenarios, profitable investments in increased transmission capacity to countries outside the Nordic region will be considered.

There are already identifiable projects for nearly 200 TWh/y of new renewable energy in the Nordic region. Many of the projects are at an early stage and may not be realized. They nevertheless reflect an extensive interest in building renewable energy in the Nordic countries, and approximately 70 TWh fossil fuel productions should over time be replaced with production free from CO2 emissions. It will also be possible to develop additional production. The surplus can be exported to Scandinavia's neighbouring countries and thus replace some of the production of nuclear power or used in new energy-intensive industries. Consequences of different capacities on the transmission cables between the Nordic countries and other countries are analysed. The use of Norwegian hydropower to balance variable wind and solar is also investigated.

NORSTRAT scenarios until 2050 and power production in the four Nordic countries in 2050 in the "Carbon Neutral" scenario

CONTACT: Project leader: Research Scientist Ingeborg Graabak, SINTEF Energy Research, Norway

NORSTRAT is part of the programme "Sustainable Energy System 2050" from Nordic Energy Research and lasts from 2011 to 2015.
Project funded by Nordic Energy Research