Planning task B: Energy services demand estimation
Example: Local energy planning in Hylkje

In this case-study, the estimation of local energy demand has been made by analysing the number and types of consumers, their needs and their consumption pattern. The total local demand for heat, electricity and other services has been estimated in several steps.

First in the estimation of yearly energy demand, four periods have been considered:

  • the ‘Very Cold’ period, with a duration of 18 days and characterized by an average temperature of -9°C
  • the ‘Cold’ period, with a duration of 137 days and characterized by an average temperature of +1°C
  • the ‘Mild’ period, with a duration of 126 days and characterized by an average temperature of 11°C
  • the ‘Warm’ period, with a duration of 84 days and characterized by an average temperature of 21°C

The next step was to define the consumption pattern of different consumers and to estimate their individual contribution to the total energy load. These estimations have been based on local data and statistics about the energy use for different types of consumers. An example of the average daily load profiles used in the analysis is given in the figure below:


These profiles have then been temperature adjusted for each of the four yearly periods defined above. In the figure below you can see how the electricity load profiles for one of the consumers look like.

Another factor taken into consideration was that the energy demand varies substantially during week days and weekends, for different types of consumers. For example, it is supposed that in schools or office buildings the consumption is reduced during weekend, while for households the situation is opposite.

Special attention is given to new buildings that will be constructed in Hylkje. For these buildings it is assumed that the heat demand can be covered by electricity, district heating or individual gas heating systems and boilers.

Advanced theory about energy demand modelling can be found in the planning tools section above. You can also browse through the cases studies above for more examples on how this planning task can be carried out.

 

Published August 3, 2012

Contact: Gerd Kjølle, SINTEF Energy Research