Planning task B: Energy services demand estimation

The most essential information in an energy planning study is to estimate present and future demand for energy services. The basic energy services are here defined as:

  • Light
  • Mechanical work
  • Heat: space heating, cooking, hot water..
  • Cooling: air conditionning, refrigeration,..
  • Electronics: PC, TV, stereo,...

The information about the demand for different services should also include indications on whether a specific energy service can be supplied by different energy carriers or sources. As an example, space heating can be supported by different energy technologies and energy carriers- alone or in combination.

Several factors may affect the local energy demand, as following:

Factors affecting total energy demand:

  • Temperature/climate (heating/cooling)
  • Area heated and insulation (households/buildings)
  • Economic cycles, trading conditions (industry)
  • Technological development (possible peak shaving equipment)
  • The attitude of energy users (price sensitivities)

Factors affecting total energy demand for specific energy carrier:     

  • Price and expected price forecast (incl. tax and duties/subsidies)
  • Availability/transport costs
  • Political decision
  • On-site Installed equipment (flexibility)
  • Dimensioning of infrastructure (technical losses)
  • Users’ preferences/user friendliness
  • Mutual dependencies between energy carriers

Information about energy services demand estimation can be found by selecting from the toolbox above: 'Data/load models' and 'Case-studies/examples'. The first link will lead you to methods and tools for load modelling, while the seccond link will lead to examples on how the task of estimating energy demand has been carried out in different case studies.

Published August 3, 2012

Example

 

Contact: Gerd Kjølle, SINTEF Energy Research