Abstract
With rising ocean temperatures, we are already seeing the migration of fish species into new waters. In heavily fished areas like the North Atlantic Ocean, this has led to rising disputes between the states and fishers who originally fished these species and the states and fishers for whom these are new local, commercial species. This is particularly poised to be a problem in the Arctic, where limited international governance and high levels of international interest may combine to create a situation where conflict will become more likely. In this paper, we study the potential impact of commercial fish species moving into the north, and consider whether current treaties such as the 1920 Svalbard Treaty and the much newer 2015 Oslo Declaration Concerning the Prevention of Unregulated High Seas Fishing in the Central Arctic Ocean will continue to prevent conflict in the face of new opportunities.