Risk, vulnerability and security of supply
Modern society is critically dependent on a secure supply of electricity to function.
The Norwegian electric power industry has been facing major changes since the Energy Act was introduced in 1991. Many of these have significance for security of supply and vulnerability. In the last 10-20 years there has been limited investment in the power supply system compared to previous years. As electricity consumption has increased, this has resulted in a strained power balance and higher loads on the operative components and the overall power system.
The Climate Agreement that was passed by the Storting, Energi21 and EU 202020 strategies all state that the only way an adequate power supply can be achieved is by increased investment in renewable energy sources and the integration of distributed generation. This will lead to increased power exchange and changes in power flow among other things. In meeting these strategies there will be new challenges for the development and operation of the power supply system as the grid was built for traditional power flow from the major sources (power plants) to end users.
The electric power system is an aging infrastructure, and the need for reinvestment is increasing fast. In the course of only a few years, there will be a pressing need for reinvestment at roughly the same time for the industry. This will bring extensive challenges. Among other things, staff recruitment and work capacity.
The main challenges for secure supply are linked to factors such as increasing climatic loads, reduced levels of staff and increasing dependency and connection to other infrastructures such as ICT.
SINTEF Energy's R&D in this area includes developing indicators to monitor risk and vulnerability in the power system, carrying out analyses and developing methodology, compiling data, and decision-support tools for risk analysis, vulnerability and security of supply.
