A significant part of the power system must be renewed the next 20 years because of old assets and poor technical condition. Renewal means here extensive maintenance measures (rehabilitation) and reinvestments. Without renewal the poor technical condition will result in failures with major economic, safety and environmental impacts and eventually represent an unacceptable risk for plant owners and society. To determine the optimal timing for maintenance and reinvestments analysis of expected future technical condition, remaining life and associated risk and cost-benefit analysis of relevant measures must be carried out.
What often complicate renewal decisions is the considerable uncertainty about the technical condition and expected remaining life of the assets. How poor is really the technical condition and how will it evolve? When is it optimal to carry out maintenance and reinvestment measures and what measures is it optimal to carry out? Postponement of comprehensive renewal may be profitable provided that this does not lead to failure with huge consequential costs.
SINTEF Energy's expertise, methods and tools in risk-based asset management of power system components include the following areas:
- Failure/residual life models based on information about technical condition
- Analysis of failure probability and associated risk
- Cost-benefit analysis of maintenance and reinvestment measures, including analysis of profitability and optimal timing
- Development of strategies for optimal asset management of power system components
- Handbooks (guidelines) for the determination of technical condition
- Required data basis for technical and economic analysis