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Probabilistic Risk-Based Security Assessment of Power Systems Considering Incumbent Threats and Uncertainties

Probabilistic Risk-Based Security Assessment of Power Systems Considering Incumbent Threats and Uncertainties

Category
Journal publication
Abstract
In-depth security analyses of power systems (PSs) require to consider the vulnerabilities to natural and human-related threats, which may cause multiple dependent contingencies. On the other hand, such events often lead to high impact on the system, so that decision-making aimed to enhance security may become difficult. Introducing the uncertainty, the risk associated to each contingency can be evaluated, thus allowing to perform effective contingency ranking. This paper describes an in-depth security assessment methodology, based on an “extended” definition of risk (including threats, vulnerability, contingency, and impact) aimed to perform the risk assessment of the integrated power and Information and Communication Technology (ICT) systems. The results of the application to test cases and realistic PSs show the added value of the proposed approach with respect to conventional security analyses in dealing with uncertainty of threats, vulnerabilities, and system response.
Language
English
Author(s)
  • Ciapessoni Emanuele
  • Cirio Diego
  • Kjølle Gerd Hovin
  • Massucco Stefano
  • Pitto Andrea
  • Sforna Marino
Affiliation
  • Italy
  • SINTEF Energy Research / Energisystemer
  • University of Genoa
Year
2016
Published in
IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid
ISSN
1949-3053
Publisher
IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Society
Volume
7
Issue
6
Page(s)
2890 - 2903